Corrections to the blogosphere, the consensus, and the world

Friday, March 30, 2012

One in 88/208/47

Media pushes the CDC study as finding an autism prevalence of 1 in 88 (in 8-year-olds).  I'm more interested in the para
"When data from all 14 ADDM sites in the 2008 surveillance year were combined, overall estimated ASD prevalence was 11.3 per 1,000 (one in 88) children aged 8 years (range: 4.8 [Alabama]–21.2 [Utah])"
That's one in 47, or 88, or 208. State estimates that differ by a factor of five do not bespeak a settled concept. 

(sorry - can't quickly get Excel to put state names in)

Slightly more in the 10-15 bracket, but there's no conclusive bunching at any level.  Small gaps at 8-10 and a larger one at 16-20, but with more states counted you could probably fill those holes in. It's a lottery.

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